Urbanization, Agricultural GDP, and Food Availability in India: ARDL Evidence from 1961–2020

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and short-run determinants of food security availability in India using the Food Production Index as a proxy and annual data for 1961–2020. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach is employed to estimate cointegration relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics among fertilizer consumption, agricultural GDP, arable land, and urban population. The ARDL results indicate that fertilizer consumption and agricultural GDP are positively and significantly associated with food availability in both the long run and short run, highlighting the importance of input intensification and agricultural sector capacity for sustaining domestic food supply. In contrast, arable land and urban population exhibit significant negative relationships with the Food Production Index in both horizons, suggesting land-related constraints and urban transition pressures on food availability. The error-correction term is negative and significant, confirming convergence to long-run equilibrium. VAR Granger causality tests further show that arable land and urban population contain predictive information for food availability.