Modelling of Solar Power Generation in Malaysia: A Time Series Analysis

Nurul Ain Najwa Zainal Abidin; Noor 'Adilah Ibrahim; Neelabja Chatterjee

doi:10.37934/feel.3.1.1930

Authors

Nurul Ain Najwa Zainal Abidin Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baharu Nilai, 7180 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Noor 'Adilah Ibrahim Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baharu Nilai, 7180 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
Neelabja Chatterjee Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia, Bandar Baharu Nilai, 7180 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.37934/feel.3.1.1930

Keywords:

Ambient temperature, humidity, irradiance, module temperature, solar energy production

Abstract

This study explores the dynamics of solar power generation in Malaysia using time series analysis, focusing on key environmental variables such as irradiance, ambient temperature, module temperature, and humidity. Data from a solar installation in Gading Kencana, Melaka, collected between July 2019 and January 2021, underwent stationarity testing, and multiple regression analysis to understand the factors influencing solar energy production. Results reveal that irradiance significantly enhances energy output, while module temperature and humidity negatively impact performance. Ambient temperature shows mixed effects depending on the context. Despite the statistical insignificance of humidity, its multicollinearity with other variables suggests a nuanced impact. The predictive model demonstrates robustness, offering reliable insights into optimizing solar panel efficiency and planning for variability in energy output. The findings aim to support energy managers, policymakers, and solar operators in improving solar power systems, ensuring sustainable energy development amidst Malaysia’s climate challenges.