Early Warning Systems for Critical Climate Transitions: A Framework for Tech-Enabled Adaptation and Risk Management

Abstract

This study developed a technology-based early warning system framework to detect climate tipping points before they cause irreversible environmental damage. Using expert consensus methodology, seven climate scientists evaluated a five-component framework that combines artificial intelligence, satellite monitoring, and communication systems to predict and respond to critical climate changes like ice sheet collapse and ocean circulation breakdown. The framework was very well accepted by the experts (95-100%), and the highest rates were obtained by planning the response (100%) and continuous improvement (100%) categories. The results demonstrate that the framework is capable to effectively incorporate frontier technologies into pragmatic risk management plans, giving rise to a preventive climate adaptation approach, which could help the society to get prepared for, and to respond against, the threat of dangerous climate transitions, which in turn can save lives and reduce economic loss.